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Topic: Skewed Exit Polling Results...

Quikstepper

Joined Mon 04/28/08
Posts: 2212

Mon 11/03/08 02:33 PM

I hope people don't let the media bias discourage them from voting...every vote counts. This is from McCain, about the poll nos.

McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO: READING THE EXIT POLLS
Mon Nov 03 2008 16:53:14 ET

As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.

However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate’s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.

Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:

1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.

2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.

3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.

4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.

5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.

After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.

“Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican.

We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.

In fact, even the 2004 exit poll report noted that higher turnout nationally and higher levels of voter interest in both 1992 and 2004 correlated with greater Within Precinct Error.

The overstating of the Democratic vote did not only occur in the national exit polls, but also occurred in the state exit polls. The 2004 exit poll report cited that the Kerry vote was overstated by more than one standard error in 26 states, while the Bush vote was overstated in just four states. So we should also expect the individual state exit polls on Tuesday to be more Democratic as well.

So given that turnout is expected to be even higher than 2004 and that Democrats are more likely to participate in the exit polls, this means we should expect greater fluctuation and variation in the exit polls from the actual election results.

The 2004 exit poll report also showed that the greatest error in the exit poll came in precincts where the interviewer was younger. The completion rates were lower and the refusal rates and Within Precinct Error was higher when the interviewers were under the age of 35.[6] Complicating this is that nearly half the interviewers were under the age of 35, including 35% who were 18-24 and another 15% were 25-34.

Conclusions

Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again that Tuesday’s exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under represent the McCain vote.

It is important that the campaign make sure the media realizes this, so that when the exit polls do leak, people do not overreact to the early exit poll data. Rather than looking at the exit polls, we should wait until we start seeing actual election results from key precincts and counties to gauge who won the election.

http://www.drudgereport.com/flashmm.htm

Edited by Quikstepper on Mon 11/03/08 02:34 PM

1956deluxe

Joined Thu 12/06/07
Posts: 6466

Mon 11/03/08 02:37 PM

Hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!! FOX! Hahahahahahaha Drudge! Hahahahahaha laugh

franshade

Joined Tue 07/24/07
Posts: 13594

Mon 11/03/08 02:39 PM

QUOTE:

did you expect anything else laughing

AdventureBegins

Joined Tue 04/10/07
Posts: 3086

Mon 11/03/08 02:39 PM

They want people to overreact to the silly polls...

How can they control you if you don't pay attention to their voice-by-poll...

Please people... Pay strict attention to the darn polls...

Else the pollesters won't be earning their keep... They have to get you to react the way your supposed to... thats what they get paid for.

Remember when you take that last step... Parachute should have been the first thing you packed.

jtip1977

Joined Mon 11/12/07
Posts: 8292

Mon 11/03/08 02:43 PM

We'll see in about 30 hours laugh

t22learner

Joined Mon 07/02/07
Posts: 1656

Mon 11/03/08 04:27 PM

Enjoy the election, Quickie.

madisonman

Joined Sun 12/23/07
Posts: 3216

Mon 11/03/08 04:30 PM

Fox News: Small McCain Crowd 'Disturbing' http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c84_1225746964&p=1

madisonman

Joined Sun 12/23/07
Posts: 3216

Mon 11/03/08 04:45 PM

Pretty much the final polls of the year - I'll save the best for last:

Wall Street Journal/NBC: Obama 51 - McCain 43

CNN/Opinion Research: Obama 53 - McCain 46

CBS: Obama 54 - McCain 41

WaPo/ABC tracking: Obama 54 - McCain 43

Pew Research: Obama 52 - McCain 44 (estimate, with undecideds allocated)

USA Today/Gallup: Obama 53 - McCain 42 (estimate)

And the big finale - Gallup's own final prediction of the vote tomorrow: Obama 55 - McCain 44

Quikstepper

Joined Mon 04/28/08
Posts: 2212

Tue 11/04/08 06:16 AM

Well if we turn into a third world banana republic is nothing to gloat about.

Edited by Quikstepper on Tue 11/04/08 06:17 AM

BrandonJItaliano